Tobias Ellwood has warned that potential US airstrikes on Iran would be unlikely to deliver a lasting solution and may instead be driven more by domestic political considerations than by strategy.
The former UK defence minister said President Donald Trump appears to be increasing pressure on Tehran while also signaling he does not want to be drawn into a prolonged regional conflict. According to Ellwood, that approach risks creating a volatile situation.
“Trump will attack. He's boxing himself into a corner,” Ellwood said, arguing that while the president may authorize limited strikes, he does not appear to want deeper involvement. “He will leave it hanging, making the situation very dangerous.” He added that Trump may see the current moment as an opportunity to act against Iran, but questioned whether such action would achieve meaningful results.
Ellwood suggested that military strikes might play well politically at home, yet could destabilize an already fragile region. “It looks good back at home, but it risks opening Pandora’s box in the Middle East. Iran has nothing to lose,” he said.
His comments come as the US increases its military presence in the region. An aircraft carrier and additional assets have been deployed to the Persian Gulf, with officials indicating that Washington could respond militarily if Iran escalates its crackdown on protesters or carries out mass executions. A second carrier positioned near Morocco could also be redirected toward the eastern Mediterranean.
Tensions have also resurfaced around Iran’s nuclear programme. Diplomatic talks that had taken place in Rome and Muscat were disrupted by a brief conflict in June. Although two additional rounds of negotiations have since occurred, no agreement has been reached, and it remains uncertain whether talks will continue.
US officials have expressed concerns not only about uranium enrichment but also about Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and its support for armed groups across the region. Tehran maintains that negotiations should focus strictly on nuclear issues.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated that the country is not pursuing nuclear weapons and is open to verification measures. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that it has been unable in recent months to fully inspect and verify Iran’s nuclear stockpile.
Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60 percent purity, close to weapons-grade, and has accumulated material beyond the limits set by the 2015 nuclear agreement. The IAEA has said it cannot fully assess the status of the programme at this time.
President Trump previously attempted to revive diplomacy by writing to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He later confirmed sending the letter and warned that failure in negotiations could lead to military action, describing such an outcome as “a terrible thing.”
Ayatollah Khamenei has said Iran would respond to any attack. The country’s leadership is also facing internal pressure following nationwide protests that began over economic issues and currency collapse, and later expanded into broader demonstrations. Reports cited by the Associated Press indicate that thousands were killed and tens of thousands detained during the subsequent crackdown.
Israel, a key US ally, has argued that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons and has called for the dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure, as well as an end to its missile programme and support for groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas.
With diplomacy stalled and military forces repositioned, regional leaders remain concerned that miscalculation on either side could spark a wider conflict.
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