Will Egypt's President Become Trump's Least Favorite Dictator? | Opinion

 

Hours after former President Donald Trump announced plans to ask Egypt to allow Palestinian refugees fleeing the war to enter the Sinai Peninsula from Gaza, Cairo’s Foreign Ministry firmly rejected the proposal. Egypt denounced any attempt to displace Palestinians as an “infringement on inalienable rights” and warned that such actions could destabilize the region, escalate conflict, and undermine prospects for peace.

Egypt’s response is revealing. In May 2024, Cairo joined South Africa in its case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing Israel of war crimes—despite lacking concrete evidence. Now, by refusing to accept Gazan refugees, Egypt faces a contradiction. If it believes war crimes are occurring, rejecting those fleeing the conflict makes it complicit. If it does not believe war crimes are taking place, it should withdraw its ICJ support. While Egypt’s foreign ministry never clarified the specifics of its intervention, the broader perception in the Middle East is that Cairo aligned itself with a legal campaign against Israel.

Beyond legal implications, Egypt’s stance raises strategic questions. Under Trump’s first term, U.S.-Egypt relations flourished. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was among the first to congratulate Trump on his 2016 victory, emphasizing a commitment to strengthening ties. Trump, in turn, praised Sisi as a “fantastic guy” and even referred to him as his “favorite dictator.” This personal rapport translated into financial and diplomatic support, with Egypt continuing to receive substantial U.S. aid while Washington overlooked Sisi’s human rights record.

Trump valued Sisi’s leadership in counterterrorism efforts, particularly in combating ISIS in the Sinai. Egypt was also seen as a crucial force against Islamism, having cracked down on the Muslim Brotherhood. For Sisi, Trump’s backing bolstered his legitimacy and influence. However, Egypt’s commitment to counterterrorism is now under scrutiny, especially concerning Hamas. Cairo turned a blind eye to smuggling operations through the Sinai, enabling Hamas to bolster its arsenal before the October 7 attacks. The Biden administration and Israel avoided directly confronting Egypt on this issue to maintain diplomatic stability. Trump’s call for Egypt to take in refugees may signal a shift in U.S. strategy, though Israel’s stance remains uncertain.

Egypt’s position is further complicated by its broader geopolitical maneuvers. In 2023, leaked intelligence exposed Cairo’s secret plans to supply rockets to Russia, defying U.S. policy. In October 2024, amid ceasefire negotiations for Gaza, Sisi skipped a key meeting with then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken to attend the BRICS summit in Russia, signaling a shift toward alternative alliances. Meanwhile, Egypt has deepened ties with China, acquiring Chinese fighter jets and allowing anti-American, pro-Beijing rhetoric to seep into state institutions. Trump, who prioritizes loyalty, may see this as a betrayal.

Economic turmoil adds another layer to Egypt’s strategic calculus. Under Sisi, the country has faced soaring inflation, mounting debt, and rising unemployment, fueling domestic dissatisfaction and potential unrest. While this crisis could make Egypt more receptive to U.S. financial support, Cairo has already rejected aid from Gulf states aimed at addressing the Gaza refugee crisis and isolating Hamas. Instead, Egypt has embraced nationalist rhetoric, positioning Sisi as a champion of Arab interests and the Palestinian cause. At times, this rhetoric overlaps with Islamist narratives, likely an attempt to appease segments of the Egyptian population. However, this approach may strain relations with a future Trump administration.

The once-close U.S.-Egypt relationship is now uncertain. Whether it remains pragmatic or turns frosty will depend on how both sides navigate growing tensions. But one thing is clear: what happens in Gaza will have lasting consequences, and Cairo’s stance could prompt Washington to reassess its strategic value.