What A Trump-Putin Detente Means for Russia and Iran's Partnership?

Former President Donald Trump's shift toward improving relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised fresh questions about the future of Russia's complex but strategically important ties with Iran. This comes just after Moscow and Tehran signed a historic long-term partnership agreement.

While U.S.-Russia discussions have primarily focused on resolving the war in Ukraine, the White House has also sought Moscow's influence in the Middle East. Iran and Israel—one of Washington's closest allies—have been engaged in direct hostilities over the conflict in Gaza. Russia played a key role in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which Trump withdrew from during his first term, and Moscow has expressed interest in reviving diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran.

Trump has proposed negotiations for a new agreement that would allow Iran to "peacefully grow and prosper," downplaying the possibility of military action against its nuclear program. However, given his history of hostility toward Iran and the reimplementation of his "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign, uncertainty remains for Russia.

Andrey Baklanov, a Middle East expert and former Russian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told Newsweek that Russia is open to helping resolve issues surrounding Iran's nuclear program and its strained relations with the U.S. and neighboring countries. However, he noted Russia’s skepticism, given past U.S. unilateral moves.

"We still recall how the U.S. unilaterally dismantled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 after years of diplomatic effort," Baklanov said. "It was President Trump who announced the withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement."

For now, Russia is taking a cautious "wait and see" approach to Trump's evolving Middle East policy.

No Security Guarantees in Russia-Iran Pact

On January 17, just three days before Trump assumed office, Iran and Russia signed a 20-year "Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership." While long in the making, this agreement fell short of establishing mutual security guarantees.

"The provisions are carefully and cautiously worded," Baklanov explained, pointing to a key clause stating that if either party is attacked, the other must not assist the aggressor. Furthermore, the treaty prohibits the use of either country's territory to support separatist movements or other actions threatening national stability.

This stands in contrast to Russia's 2023 agreement with North Korea, which requires both nations to provide military and other immediate aid in the event of an armed attack.

"Each relationship is unique," Baklanov said. "Comparisons with North Korea are not appropriate given the vastly different geopolitical contexts."

Instead of strengthening military alliances, Baklanov argued that regional security should come through a balanced collective security system—possibly backed by Russia and the U.S.—though this would require improved Moscow-Washington ties.

Iran-Russia Tensions Amid Military Cooperation

Russia's war in Ukraine has deepened its military ties with both Iran and North Korea. Russian forces have extensively used drones resembling Iran’s Shahed series, while U.S. and South Korean intelligence suggest North Korea has provided artillery and even troops. While Moscow’s aid to Pyongyang is less clear, Russia has supplied Iran with trainer aircraft and is reportedly set to deliver advanced Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. This could significantly upgrade Iran's aging air force at a time when Israel has openly threatened further military action against it.

However, long-standing disputes between Russia and Iran, exacerbated by recent conflicts, threaten to derail their growing ties.

Long before Ukraine, Russia and Iran collaborated militarily in Syria to support President Bashar al-Assad. However, Russia’s shift in priorities toward Ukraine—and its subsequent compromises with Turkey—left Iran feeling sidelined.

"Russia and Iran helped keep Assad in power, but when the war in Ukraine started, Moscow aligned more closely with Turkey, cutting Iran out of key decisions," said Javad Heirannia, director of Persian Gulf Studies at Tehran's Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies.

Many in Iran now blame Russia for failing to prevent the collapse of Assad's rule in December. This has led to growing mistrust, even among Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which reportedly criticized Russia’s reluctance to allow greater Iranian involvement in Syria.

Russia Pressures Iran Toward Diplomacy

Given Trump's renewed push to distance Russia from Iran while keeping Tehran under strict sanctions, Moscow appears eager to steer Iran toward negotiations.

"Russia knows that if the U.S. and Israel launch military action against Iran, it could weaken Iran in ways that would harm Russian interests," Heirannia said. "At the same time, any regime change in Iran toward a pro-Western government would be a geopolitical loss for Moscow."

To avoid either scenario, Russia is pressuring Iran to return to diplomacy. This became evident during Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s latest visit to Tehran, where he urged Iranian leaders to reconsider talks with the U.S. However, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains firmly opposed, calling such negotiations "not rational, intelligent, or honorable."

Signs of divergence between Russia and Iran have also surfaced at the U.N. In a recent General Assembly vote, Iran abstained rather than rejecting a resolution condemning Russia’s role in Ukraine—an unusual move given Tehran's past alignment with Moscow.

This growing rift could jeopardize Iran’s hopes of securing advanced Russian weaponry.

"Now that U.S.-Russia relations are improving, Moscow is unlikely to risk tensions by sending advanced arms to Iran," Heirannia said. "Even in the midst of conflict between Israel and Iran, Russia hesitated to deliver Su-35 fighters."

He also noted that Iran's leadership is becoming increasingly aware of Russia’s limits. "While they have long called ties with Moscow ‘strategic,’ they are now less vocal about Russia’s reluctance to fully back Tehran."

A 'Golden Age' of U.S.-Russia Relations?

Despite these tensions, Russia may still play a key role in reviving nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, especially if Trump and Putin establish a new era of cooperation.

Moscow-based analyst Andrew Korybko described this rapprochement as a "New Détente," where both leaders find mutual benefit in diplomatic coordination.

"The Iranian nuclear issue is crucial for both Trump and Putin," Korybko said. "Russia wants to prevent U.S. and Israeli military action that could destabilize its southern border, while Trump is concerned about Iran’s nuclear program."

If a Ukraine peace deal is reached, leading to broader U.S.-Russia cooperation on energy and strategic resources, Russia may be well-positioned to facilitate talks between Washington and Tehran.

Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected last year on a platform of economic recovery, could also play a role. While Khamenei ultimately controls foreign policy, Russia’s stance may help shape Iran’s willingness to negotiate.

China, Iran’s top trading partner, will also influence developments. Trump's second-term approach to Beijing could impact the geopolitical landscape for Russia, Iran, and other major players.

Korybko speculated that a new "Non-Aligned Movement" (NAM) could emerge, involving countries like Russia, Iran, and India—allowing them to navigate U.S.-China tensions while maintaining economic and strategic independence.

"If a new Cold War between the U.S. and China intensifies, it would be beneficial for Russia, Iran, and India to have already secured their own agreements with the U.S.," he said. "This could lead to a balanced global power structure, ushering in the 'Golden Age' that Trump envisions."