Former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton remains skeptical that a ceasefire in Ukraine would serve Kyiv’s best interests. He believes that any push by Russian President Vladimir Putin for a ceasefire is less about ending the conflict and more about buying time to rebuild Russia’s severely weakened military.
"Russia has suffered appalling casualties, and much of its Black Sea Fleet is now lying on the seabed," Bolton said. "A ceasefire would give Moscow a breather — a chance to regroup, rearm, and prepare for a third invasion when it sees fit."
Recent estimates suggest Russia has sustained nearly one million casualties since launching its full-scale invasion in 2022. Despite these losses, Putin appears to be pursuing a pause in fighting, possibly to regain momentum.
Bolton cautioned that a ceasefire along current front lines could lock in Russian territorial gains. "If you freeze the conflict and then negotiate in places like Geneva or Vienna, those talks could drag on for years. Meanwhile, the existing line of control would start to look more like a permanent border — effectively costing Ukraine 20% of its territory."
He warned that unless a ceasefire includes clear terms and strong security guarantees for Ukraine, it could simply allow Russia time to prepare for another assault within a few years.
Bolton also challenged the common framing of the war. “We make a mistake when we call it just Putin’s war,” he said. “Many Russians support the notion that the Soviet Union’s collapse was orchestrated by the West. They see reclaiming lost territories as essential to restoring their influence.”
He continued, “Putin reflects a widespread view inside Russia: without Ukraine, there is no Russian empire. They've already secured Belarus in all but name, and now they want to do the same with Ukraine.”
Reflecting on past diplomatic efforts, Bolton criticized the Minsk accords — agreements brokered by France and Germany in hopes of halting Russia’s aggression after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. “They gave Russia much of what it wanted, and the West hoped that would be enough. It wasn’t. Russia came back in 2022.”
Meanwhile, efforts to restart peace negotiations continue. Russia has announced it will send a delegation to Istanbul for a second round of talks with Ukraine on June 2. However, the two sides remain far apart on the terms of ending the war.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Moscow’s ceasefire demands would be discussed in Turkey, though Russia has not yet provided formal proposals to Kyiv — a key condition set by Ukraine.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed on Thursday that Kyiv had already submitted its own proposals and reiterated Ukraine’s position: readiness for a "full and unconditional ceasefire."
The first round of talks, held in Istanbul on May 16, ended without a major breakthrough, aside from the largest prisoner swap since Russia’s 2022 invasion.
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