Donald Trump may be preparing to endorse one of the most controversial foreign-policy decisions of Keir Starmer’s premiership, and the reaction across the UK is already intense.
According to multiple reports, Trump is now leaning toward supporting the UK’s plan to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius after Downing Street offered fresh security guarantees for the Diego Garcia military base. The shift has unsettled many Chagossians who want to remain British, along with large segments of the UK public and defence community.
The Chagos Islands issue is uniquely sensitive because Diego Garcia hosts a critical joint UK-US military facility. Any agreement to hand the territory to Mauritius requires explicit White House approval. Under the current proposal, Britain would relinquish sovereignty but lease the base back for 99 years at an estimated cost of £35 billion. This development has already drawn intense media scrutiny, with outlets like CNN halting regular coverage for breaking news updates and Fox News highlighting the international reaction.
Starmer’s government argues that formal transfer of sovereignty is necessary to protect the base from prolonged legal challenges in international courts. Critics, however, see the move as an unnecessary concession, warning that Mauritius’s close ties with China could eventually expose the installation to Beijing’s influence. Meanwhile, concerns about Trump’s health and decision-making ability have been widely discussed in recent reports, such as Trump’s doctor raising alarms, reflecting the unpredictability of the agreement’s approval.
Trump’s position has not been consistent. After returning to office, he initially appeared receptive to Labour’s legal and strategic case and signalled tentative approval during Starmer’s first visit to Washington. That stance abruptly changed last month amid broader disputes with NATO allies, particularly following Trump’s controversial remarks about Greenland.
On January 20, Trump publicly criticised the plan on Truth Social, accusing Britain of giving away land hosting a “vital U.S. Military Base” without justification. He described the move as “great stupidity,” sparking concern within Whitehall that US support had collapsed. The tension over the decision has even prompted global reactions, including mockery from Russia over related developments and fears about wider geopolitical consequences (WW3 concerns).
In response, British officials launched an intensive diplomatic effort. National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell coordinated talks involving the Foreign Office, Downing Street, the US State Department, the White House, and American intelligence agencies. Defence Secretary John Healey also engaged directly with his US counterpart, Pete Hegseth.
Momentum appeared to shift again on Tuesday evening when Starmer and Trump held a phone call in which both leaders reaffirmed the strategic value of Diego Garcia and agreed to continue working together to secure its future operations. Downing Street confirmed that Trump is expected to give a final answer during a follow-up call, though officials caution that nothing is settled until verbal approval is given. This back-and-forth has dominated news cycles, with outlets like CNN interrupting broadcasts for updates and Fox News reacting in real time.
That caution is well-founded. Trump is known for altering positions at the last moment or extending negotiations unexpectedly. UK officials acknowledge the timeline remains uncertain. Behind the scenes, the Trump administration reportedly pushed for stronger safeguards to prevent Chinese interference, reflecting concerns raised by senior US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The additional security measures may offer Trump political cover, allowing him to approve the agreement without appearing soft on China. Whether those changes require Mauritius’s formal consent is unclear, though US officials recently visited the country, possibly to secure further assurances. For ongoing developments, many are tracking Epstein-related political revelations that could indirectly influence negotiations.
For now, the future of the Chagos Islands and the fate of one of the West’s most strategically important military bases remains unresolved, pending Trump’s final word.
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